It’s another Manic Monday, and yet another Joao Moreira-less meeting with the Magic Man back on Thursday after a two day suspension. And with Moreira away, there’s a more level playing field though one really hopes local punters don’t follow everything ten pound claiming apprentice Matthew Poon rides and adds to the great expectations already wresting on the kid’s shoulders. He isn’t Joao Moreira, okay?
The so-called “Poon Train” choo choo-ed into Hong Kong a few weeks ago after a hugely successful season in Adelaide, and rode one winner at his first meeting here, was then handed down a suspension and ended up being concussed when kicked by a horse in the parade ring. It’s taken around two weeks for “The Poon Train” to be cleared to leave the station.
Matthew Poon is an energetic young rider with that will to win at all costs, but there’s a helluva lot of difference between winning races in Adelaide by beating the likes of Jaime Kah and Emily Finnegan and riding against some of the best riders in the world who are based in Hong Kong.
It’s going to take time, trial and error and the mentoring of the great Felix Coetzee before the young rider really hits his strides, so here’s hoping the hype is kept to a very low hum and that any Poon plushies are kept on ice. The young rider has a very good book of rides on paper, but so has Zac Purton, and two riders having a fantastic season and travelling pretty much under the radar- Sammy Clipperton and Nash Rawiller. And let’s never forget that quiet achiever and Mauritian Magician that is Karis Teetan, whereas, after a slow start, Umberto Rispoli could be amongst the winners today.
It doesn’t look like being a difficult day to find winners, but, as always, if not a professional punter, it’s all about focusing on the exotic bet types, where for a small outlay, the return on investment can be in the millions.
For example, what’s puzzling, albeit a pleasant puzzle for those who’ve solved them have been the huge payouts recently for snaring the Six Up Bonus. Last Sunday, for example, despite four favourites winning, including Rapper Dragon, the popular exotic bet with many casual punters paid over $130,000 with the other two legs not exactly difficult to find.
Sometimes, if everyone looks for value with no winning chances, the money goes all over the place except in the obvious direction. It’s why when asked, “What do you like?” and mention your pick only to hear, “But there’s no value”, one just needs to walk away before it becomes too confusing, and you’re swayed into the Venus Value Trap while one loses sight of the Money Pit by it getting buried in an avalanche of useless information.
Still with the Six Up, we know one person who, last Wednesday, took the entire fields in the first two legs and one horse out in the next four races for $2 and walked away with around $400,000, thanks to 79 to 1 outsider Fine With Me winning the fourth race. Their outlay? Around $300, and with them being the only winner. An outlay of $1,400 would have netted them the entire Six Up pool of around $1.3 million. Sometimes, one must live dangerously.
If looking for a big Six Up payout, the following favourites need to lose- City Legend (1) in Race 5, Magic Legend (3) in Race 8 and World Record (7) in the last. World Record looks bomb proof and another winner for Sam Clipperton, below with girlfriend Morgan.
The most vulnerable of these looks like being Magic Legend. After three consecutive winners, the galloper has catapulted up the ratings, and could be overhauled close to home. The other favourite perhaps worth taking on is City Legend. Carrying top weight might be too hard a task. In fact, the first leg of the Six Up- Race 5- could see the start of the The Legends Of The Fall.
Race 10: World Record (7)
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Race 6: Winston’s Lad (6)
Race 8: Line Seeker (4)